West Nile Virus Has Reached Its Highest Recorded Value

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West Nile Virus

Analysis just completed by Replikins LLC of the most currently available West Nile virus protein sequences world wide listed on PubMed indicates that the Replikin Count has increased over the past seven years to reach in 2006 its highest level recorded, indicating the potential for even more severe West Nile Virus outbreaks with higher mortality rates to come.

Replikins has discovered a new group of virus structural peptides within virus proteins, called replikins, which provide virus-specific advance quantitative warnings of rapid replication and the risk of epidemics.

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Replikins LLC has developed software called ReplikinsForecast, which quantitatively measures the concentration of these specific peptides in virus proteins (Replikin Count). Increased Replikin Counts give advanced warning by frequently preceding a virus outbreak by one or two years, and return to lower levels in advance of quiescent periods.

Replikins LLC analysis of the West Nile peptides has provided advanced warning of the increase of West Nile Virus occurrence beginning to be reported. Advanced warning of the cyclic build-up of West Nile Virus (WNV) is important as preventive measures against the virus's mosquito carrier could be timely activated.

The CDC has commented on the inability to date to predict eruption of outbreaks or their magnitude: "We know there are going to be focal areas that are going to be outbreak areas, but we can't guess where or what magnitude they're going to be". "Yet despite nationwide efforts to fight and track West Nile virus, it can't be predicted whether the mosquito-borne disease is poised to increase, decline or erupt in occasional outbreaks now that it has settled in across the nation".

Replikins, LLC is regularly making accurate predictions for influenza viruses and according to the present findings, may also be able to do so for West Nile Virus. The methodology previously used successfully by Replikins LLC with influenza viruses, has now been applied to West Nile Virus. The Replikin Count of WNV (number of replikins per 100 amino acids) has been found to have increased from 2.8 plus or minus 0 in 2000, to 3.8 plus or minus 1.7 in 2004, to 4.5 plus or minus 1.8 in 2005, to 6.0 plus or minus 1.1 in 2006 (statistically significant, p values less than 0.001). If the relationships to outbreaks previously demonstrated for influenza virus replikins apply as well to West Nile Virus replikins, this data indicates that the immediate prospect is for more severe West Nile Virus outbreaks with higher mortality rates.

ReplikinForecast is a proprietary exclusive service offered by Replikins LLC and Ltd. for the advanced warning of, and to track, emerging viruses and other infectious organisms. In Replikins's Early Warning/Rapid Responset Service, virus protein sequences of threatening viruses, as soon as available, are analyzed within hours.

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