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Indonesia Reports Experiencing Human H5N1 Mortality Increase

Armen Hareyan's picture


2005-2006 FluForecast virus data indicated clearly that 1) the mortality rate of human H5N1 was increasing markedly, and that 2) the first country in which this would be clinically realized would be Indonesia.

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Two days ago, Bayu Krisnamurthi, the head of Indonesia's avian flu control commission, reported the clinical realization of both of these two predictions (Canadian Press, June 6, 2007). In his comments to reporters, Dr. Krisnamurthi stated that recent changes in the H5N1 virus seem to be increasing its rate and ease of transmission from birds to humans.

The World Health Organization (WHO), which has not yet used the FluForecast Service, has reported that as yet they had no evidence of these changes. FluForecast, an automated software-based system for pinpointing genomic changes in viruses, is the only system which has successfully predicted, well in advance, each outbreak of H5N1 bird flu over the past seven years.

Recent discovery of the Replikin Peak Gene and improvements in its Replikins patented technology have allowed prediction of the geographic location, as well as the gene location and the host animal species of each outbreak. The announcement by Dr. Krisnamurthi represents the first independent government confirmation of the success of these improved capabilities.