This Year's Flu Vaccine Predictions Failed

A report by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that this year's flu vaccine was not effective enough, because vaccine predictions failed.

Every year scientists track influenza strains and their mutation, analyze gathered data to predict which strains will be more dangerous and widespread in the coming season. Usually, scientists are giving successful results and those who are being vaccinated as directed are being from 70% to 90% protected from the disease. It is difficult to guess which strains will be more active in the coming season, because the molecular structure changes every year.

This year's predictions were the most unsuccessful compared to last 3 seasons. Flu vaccine was only 44% effective this season, according to CDC. Even those who followed all directions for getting flu vaccination had higher risk for getting the disease.

This season predictions were expecting two strains of influenza A and influenza B to be the most widespread. Flu vaccine was especially designed to protect against these strains. It showed 58% effectiveness in protecting from A strains of the virus, but it was totally ineffective in protecting from B strain.

Apart from failed vaccine effectiveness, researchers also analyzed data for making predictions for coming season. The results from this analysis show promise for coming season's predictions. Researchers found that influenza starts spreading in Asia, about 6 to 9 months later the virus reaches Europe and North America, several months later the virus arrives in South America.

Researchers have found that while spreading through the continents the virus is weakening, it is not becoming more dangerous while spreading. This information makes it easier for scientists to make better predictions and develop more effective flu vaccine for coming seasons.