Has The HIV Epidemic Rate Peaked?

The HIV epidemic appears to have stabilized around the world, according to "Has the HIV epidemic peaked?" published in the June issue of the Population Council's peer-reviewed journal Population and Development Review. The authors are Population Council Vice President and Distinguished Scholar John Bongaarts and three colleagues affiliated with the United Nations Population Division.

Although the rate of new infections has probably peaked in all world regions, the absolute number of HIV-positive individuals is expected to continue to grow in sub-Saharan Africa and remain near current levels worldwide--posing an ongoing challenge to public health programs. As a result of continued high rates of population growth and only moderate success of prevention programs in reducing HIV incidence, a large number of adolescents and adults are still likely to become infected.

Most of the world's 33.2 million HIV-positive individuals are likely to die of AIDS-related illnesses eventually.